Backtesting · Statistical validation · Real prices, never real money

Backtest any strategy — and find out if the edge is real.

AlphaGlyph runs quant and machine-learning strategies on real historical prices with simulated capital, then does what most backtests don't: it checks whether the result is genuine skill or just luck, using the same statistical tests quant funds use. Six strategies, a no-code rule builder, an ML transformer — and an honest verdict on every run.

No code · No account · No real money · Every trade explained in plain English

Strategy Validation Report
Statistically Significant
Monte Carlo — 92nd percentile of 1,000 resampled paths
Deflated Sharpe — 96.4% confidence the edge is real
Fama-French — +6.8%/yr alpha (|t| = 2.31, significant)
6
Strategies + custom rules
1,000
Monte Carlo paths
3
Validation tests
130
Passing tests
$0
Real money at risk

Run a strategy. See the trades. Get an honest verdict.

The whole flow is one page — the Backtester — with everything explained, not hidden behind a number.

1 · Pick a strategy & run it

Choose from six strategies (or build your own buy/sell rules from indicators), pick stocks and a date range, and simulate it day-by-day on real prices with transaction costs.

2 · See every trade explained

The equity curve, each trade with a plain-English reason (what it saw, the regime, why it acted), and an optional animated replay of the whole run.

3 · Is it real, or luck?

Monte Carlo, Deflated Sharpe, and Fama-French synthesise into one verdict: Statistically Significant, Promising, or Inconclusive.

Most backtests stop at a Sharpe ratio. This one asks if it's real.

Any strategy can look good on historical data by chance. AlphaGlyph runs three independent statistical tests and synthesises them into a single verdict.

  • 01

    Resample reality

    1,000 bootstrap paths build a distribution — your result either stands out or it doesn't.

  • 02

    Correct for luck

    The Deflated Sharpe Ratio penalises testing many strategies, the way good science corrects for multiple comparisons.

  • 03

    Isolate true skill

    Factor decomposition strips out market, size, and value exposure to reveal whether any genuine alpha remains.

stats.py — deflated_sharpe_ratio()
# Probability the Sharpe is real after
# testing N strategies on noisy data
def deflated_sharpe_ratio(returns, n_strategies):
    sr   = annualized_sharpe(returns)
    skew = scipy.stats.skew(returns)
    kurt = scipy.stats.kurtosis(returns)

    # expected max Sharpe from pure luck
    sr_star = expected_max_sharpe(n_strategies)

    return psr(sr, sr_star, skew, kurt)
    # → 0.964  ✓ significant

A real quantitative toolkit — built from first principles.

Every indicator, model, and statistical method is implemented from scratch — no black-box TA libraries.

Six strategies + a custom rule builder

MA Crossover, RSI, MACD, a patient Dip Buyer, an ML transformer — and a no-code builder to define your own buy/sell rules from indicators.

An ML transformer — evaluated honestly

A multi-modal transformer trained with a chronological 60/20/20 split; backtests run strictly out-of-sample. The win is the rigour, not a magic edge.

Adaptive regime detection

ADX, Bollinger Band Width, and realized volatility classify the market into four regimes; the adaptive strategy switches to match.

Trailing stops & Kelly sizing

Wide trailing stops let winners run; the Kelly Criterion sizes positions by the historical edge, not a fixed percentage. No look-ahead — and it's tested.

Leaderboard & optimizer

Rank every strategy on the same data, and compute the Markowitz efficient frontier (max-Sharpe and min-variance portfolios) in the Tools tab.

Honest by design

Monte Carlo, Deflated Sharpe (López de Prado), and Fama-French attribution tell you whether an edge is genuine — or just luck.

Backtest a strategy now.

Pick a strategy and a few stocks, run it on real history in seconds, and see whether the edge holds up — no account required.